today was another day when the indicators were close to a reversal point so i jumped when the ending of the indicators are the biggest moves.

no more counter trend trades. find the trend with the 13/34 ema ... bide your time and go with the flow. the indicators are not that accurate and if you get caught in a wrong trade the trend will make you right and profitable and calm. when the trend does change just reverse instruments.

no counter trend trades

watch consolidation rails of rambus

note that the last days near reversal are the biggest moves

find the trend with rambus and 13/34

In both cases the indicators were getting close so I jumped when the ending of the indicators were the biggest moves.

Market sentiment indicators differ from (most) other indicators in that they don't pay any attention to market price.

When taking a medium or long-term trade you want to be on the same side as the majority of large contract non-commercial traders in the COT report. These traders are mostly trend following in nature and are usually right.

You want DO NOT EVER want to be on the same side as the majority of small retail traders, these traders are essentially gamblers trying to pick short term tops and bottoms and fading the trend, the majority of these traders are usually wrong. Following them will most likely lead to disaster.

Market turns usually happen when the COT is showing an extreme reading, i.e. one position vastly outnumbers the other to an extent that hasn't been seen for a long time. Use these extreme readings as a warning flag against taking a medium or long-term trade. Extremes can last for a long time. As Keynes said,"the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" so an extreme COT reading should be seen as a warning signal against taking a trade, rather than a signal to bet on a trend reversal.

Small retail traders typically trade in the exact opposite way as the large speculators and hedge funds. They gamble, trying to pick short-term tops and bottoms. Picking tops and bottoms consistently is damn near impossible so the majority of retail traders are usually losing money as they fight the trend. When the market does finally turn the majority of retail traders will be on the winning side, when this happens they typically take a small profit and close their positions then end up wrong and losing money, again. In the financial markets (especially the Forex market) money tends to flow from the majority of small traders into the pockets of the few large ones.

http://www.myforexdot.org.uk/COTvsSentimentIndexes.html

Check out Marty Chenard on safehaven for institutional accumulation or distribution.

Trade two batches. 1 in the first green zone sold in the first yellow zone. 1 in the second green zone sold in the orange zone.

ZigZag: Correlation has a low hitting around Oct 4th and then a lower high peak on Oct 9th. I’ll be looking at my short term charts tonight and see if I can narrow it down.

“All Warfare is about Deception. Hence, when able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces; we must seem inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near.... If your opponent is choleric temper, seek to IRRITATE him. Pretend to be Weak, That he may grow ARROGANT.”

by Sun Tzu

James Kelly sr.:

Back in those good old days, when Wall Street was less notorious and somewhat more moral, Dean Witter had a full time dedicated analyst that I am forever grateful to (Bill Sullivan) for helping me decipher the then cryptic code of the FED.

Wikipedia generally describes FED Speak as the turgid, verbose, intentionally wordy, intentionally vague, indecipherable, deliberately confusing, carefully rehearsed cryptic language that is impossible to interpret language of the USA Federal Treasury Reserve.

Again according to Wiki, the strategy or conceptual design of FED Speak is that it leaves the distinct impression to give the majority of people a sense; - that there's no way they could understand economics and finance."

This allows the Federal Reserve a greater freedom and independence to manage the economy with less interference (and no audits) from the general public and taxpayers. Another way of looking at it, is that the USA FED has a good thing going, and they want to keep it that way by making their job and mandate appearas excruciatingly complex (when it is the opposite).

Ben Bernanke and the FED live in fear from intellectual politicians like Ron Paul whom would have them audited and a lot more accountable.

Mr. Bernanke also knows that if the Republicans win the USA November election - Mitt Romney has plans to dispose of him, and worse Ron Paul's bill (a bill introduced by Paul to make the FED accountable) is a huge potential threat to the hidden agenda and money-printing antics at the never audited thus never responsible, FED.

It is easy to surmise that Bernanke himself (as any human with ego) would thus like to keep his job by the re-election of President Obama, whom to date he has evidently hoodwinked.

Jackson Hole Secret Handshakes

Although the FED FOMC has a number of voting members whom have individual and differing views, there is little doubt that Chairman Bernanke holds the power of FED suasion.

After the market has been stuck all August (highly suspicious) the pertinent question to now ask is; will QE3 be announced (or some form of it - by another name) next week at the September FOMC meeting?

Although there are never guarantees in life, having now deciphered the cryptic messages as a long time FED watcher, and all of the secret handshakes, and hidden undertones at Jackson Hole and in early Republican and Democratic convention speeches (such as Michell Obama - "My Husband has kept interest rates low"....) my vote is decidedly that further stimulus will be announced next week at the FOMC meeting.

If I am correct about a coming QE3 next week, you will want to close out any short positions and be long (at least for a little while).

Having said that for you naysayers; be aware that nothing - again nothing, has changed my medium term outlook that a bull market top is completing and slowly time is running out.

Be patient and hopefully you have already noted that there is one missing Elliott Wave clue; a subdivision or minor fifth wave up to complete the five of the five, of the five.

Use sso or sds rsi for buys and sells!

Our research — studying VXX since Jan 2011 — indicates that the VXX crash will NOT be over before the sum of the positive Runs starting Thu exceeds the sum of the negative Runs starting Thu by at least +6 days, the Runs Reversion Factor RFF.

A Run is one or more consecutive days of VXX closing price up or down

Optimized 10 Run Weighted Moving Average 10wRMA in charts 1-3 below eliminates 12+ 'rogue predictions' of one-day Runs up and down.

Predicting VXX price trends is simple and easy — all you have to do is see when the red line crosses zero. You don't have to know any math, statistics, standard deviations, etc. If LOG's are confusing, just think of the green lines as VXX spread out to better see changes.